The key question is how much of the latest growth record represents recovery from the 2020-2021 downturn, and what is the sustainable growth rate now, asks T N Ninan.
'The critical event signalling a new era for India was Dr Singh's 1991 Budget in which he quoted Victor Hugo to say that no power on earth could stop an idea whose time has come,' recalls T N Ninan.
By way of illustration, there have been increasingly frequent reports in the press of proposals for India to provide special funds to support overseas investments by public sector resource firms so as to ensure security of supply for key minerals and fuels.
The answer to the problems of high inflation and slowing growth, and low farm incomes, would lie in addressing the basic reforms that India is still to attempt -- like labour laws, says T N Ninan.
"You can't please all people. And the finance minister has done as good a job as was possible," said Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in an interview with T N Ninan, editorial director and chairman of Business Standard Ltd, on Monday after Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee announced the Budget proposals in Parliament.
"You can't please all people. And the finance minister has done as good a job as was possible," said Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in an interview with T N Ninan, editorial director and chairman of Business Standard Ltd, on Monday after Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee announced the Budget proposals in Parliament.
'The finance minister in her Budget speech should spell out how exactly she intends to get back to the 7% track, and the hard decisions she intends to take in order to adjust to the realities of a slowing economy until growth momentum returns,' suggests T N Ninan.
While Nifty 50 reflects changes in 40 years, it also shows what is missing: Low-cost manufacturers at one end, and deep-value players at the other. Also missing are technology players, observes T N Ninan.
That's because India does not have a serious venture capital industry with an appetite for risk, observes T N Ninan.
'Perhaps GST was too complex a system for the Indian economy at its present stage of development,' argues T N Ninan.
Mr Adani has a fight on his hands. It is not a fight to the death, asserts T N Ninan.
The only feasible way to have a healthy banking sector could be making it mostly private, along with two or three large, better-run government banks, suggests T N Ninan.
'When growth drops precipitously from 7% to 4.5% in four quarters, it is for all practical purposes a recession' notes T N Ninan.
From lack of big reforms to regressive tax policies, the Modi govt has surrendered its initial momentum, says Shishir Asthana.
The Indian State's arbitrariness may have come to be accepted with resignation within the country, but when it behaves in the same manner with external players, it gets a push-back, observes T N Ninan.
Perhaps the calculation is that economic recovery will have been achieved before the next general election comes around, but such assumptions can come unstuck if current directions are not reversed quickly, cautions T N Ninan.
If India is to urbanise successfully, it has to focus on Tier 2 cities with a population of one-five million, observes T N Ninan.
Tarun Das and T N Ninan offer their prognosis for US-India momentum on the economic front
New body to replace Plan panel might retain 40% of existing staff
If the real estate sector is properly managed, it could drive not just finance but demand for a range of products and services, observes T N Ninan.
In a sharp attack on the Narendra Modi government, BJP leader Arun Shourie on Monday contended that it believes that managing economy means "managing the headlines" and that people had started recalling the days of former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.
In politics, if your objective is only winning elections, just Chanakya neeti might do. For governance you need both, Chanakya neeti and Ram Rajya. You can neither beat up the farmers into submission, nor dismiss them as 'Khalistanis', asserts Shekhar Gupta.
India is going into the longest lockdown in the world, with the least amount of notice given to its people and the least preparation by its government.
It became increasingly clear that the real negotiations the government had to conduct were with Indian business which was wary of yet another free trade agreement, points out T N Ninan.
'This is social reform, which has to be conducted from within society and by its institutions, like religious bodies, not by public officials and ministers. That is why I think the big change Modi seeks is actually not in his power to bring about,' says Aakar Patel.
'The middle class you can hurt anytime. For revenues, politics, pleasure, anything,' notes Shekhar Gupta.
'A sustainable growth rate of 8 per cent is evidently some distance away,' says T N Ninan.
The crisis in Indian banking has now reached a point where the NPAs of many public-sector banks are higher than their net worth
When there is an enormous shortage of public hospitals, when state expenditure on health care is abysmally low by any international yardstick, tax money should be used to set up public hospitals, says T N Ninan.
'The Chinese have taken to telling their Indian interlocutors to bear in mind the 5:1 disparity in the sizes of the two economies.' 'The message from Beijing, says T N Ninan, is clear: Acknowledge superior Chinese power, and behave accordingly.'
The shift from 'one country, one tax' to four tax rates could dilute possible gains on GDP, warns T N Ninan.
The city needs some autonomy, or it will continue to decline in all the ways that are familiar, observes T N Ninan
Instead of a consumption stimulus the government must address the NPA issue with a war footing and invest in infrastructure, affordable housing and exports, says Sanjeev Nayyar.
Nilanjana S Roy compiles a list of the most eagerly awaited books next year.
'Prime Minister Manmohan Singh refused to allow us to project his real personality to let the people of India know exactly what he really was. He was always shying away from greater public exposure. Since the last two years we have seen enormous criticism, ridiculing the prime minister. He has been made into an object of jokes. It certainly hurts. I think this man deserves lots of good reviews... His contribution to social policy, his contribution to the economy, his contribution to coalition management, his contribution to foreign policy.' Dr Sanjaya Baru, Dr Singh's former media advisor who is in the eye of a storm over his book on the prime minister UPA speaks to Rediff.com's Sheela Bhatt.
'Modi is likely to make more announcements to win or retain popularity, and put himself at the centre of things even more than now,' says T N Ninan.
Shekhar Gupta's anthology is a valuable addition to our understanding of the seeming muddle that is India... The experience of reading his columns is more like a chat with a friend in the afterglow of an enjoyable drink, but never frivolous, says Shreekant Sambrani.
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